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“VW is about to launch a load of electric vehicles at the same price as gasolines, and therefore at a loss,” said Laurent Petizon, a managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners. “Our interpretation is that the 2021 fines have already been factored into their sales strategy,” he said. “Rather than pay penalties they prefer to lose money on vehicles and get the market going.”. Volkswagen declined to discuss pricing in detail. “We want our electric cars to be a real alternative to a reasonably equipped Golf Diesel,” a spokesman said.

Volkswagen and Mercedes parent Daimler, which between them have announced 30 billion euros ($35 billion) in electrification investment, both warned last month that it would not be enough, They and other carmakers are also mandated to sell more electric cars in China and a group of U.S, states led by California, More than 200 electric and plug-in model launches are nightmare before christmas cufflinks already scheduled globally over the next three years, Electric cars still cost 7,800 euros more to produce on average than conventional ones, AlixPartners calculates, Plug-in hybrids - which combine a smaller rechargeable battery with a combustion engine - overshoot by 5,000 euros..

When that cost gap is reflected in the price, few are sold. Mass-market electrics such as the Renault (RENA.PA) Zoe and Nissan (7201.T) Leaf have been on sale for most of the current decade, and heavily subsidized in Europe, while Tesla (TSLA.O) has made inroads into the premium business. Yet pure-electric cars claim just 1 percent of the market overall. Despite their higher cost, BMW plug-in models are already priced broadly on a par with diesels. The luxury carmaker acknowledges that their margins are significantly thinner.

Mercedes also says the EQC electric SUV will be priced close to its GLC cousin to tackle Tesla’s $49,000 Model 3, “It absolutely is impacting the profitability of the industry,” said Rebecca Lindland, a senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book, which tracks vehicle pricing, “Demand doesn’t justify investment at all - it’s all regulation.”, Which is why, on this subject more than most, European carmakers talk from both sides of their nightmare before christmas cufflinks mouths, While executives exude confidence for investors’ and customers’ benefit, their Brussels lobby group ACEA warns of an imminent threat to the region’s 3.4 million automotive manufacturing jobs..

“The conditions for such a systemic change clearly aren’t met, and consumers just aren’t ready for full-electric,” ACEA Secretary General Erik Jonnaert said recently. Automotive suppliers are also feeling exposed. “We’ve taken risks as a company,” said Jacques Aschenbroich, chief executive of Valeo (VLOF.PA), a major manufacturer of electrification components and systems. “We have invested a lot even though the market doesn’t exist.”. Carmakers are demanding increased public investment in recharging networks - which may yet awaken mass demand.

Economies of scale should also bring some relief, But lithium-ion batteries, which claim 40 percent of an electric car’s value, face global cobalt and nickel shortages that will pull the other way, inflating costs as production volumes rise, Perhaps more critically, generous government sales subsidies are unlikely to survive much growth, In markets where incentives have been dropped, electric car sales have fallen, Renault is discounting its recently upgraded Zoe in the UK market with a 5,000 pound ($6,500) trade-in bonus, in addition to nightmare before christmas cufflinks the government’s 4,500 pound plug-in incentive..

French rival PSA will price its new rechargeable hybrids to match diesel leasing rates, program director Olivier Salvat told reporters on a recent factory visit - adding that the carmaker aimed to avoid losing money on each vehicle sold. “We don’t launch vehicles with negative operating margins,” Salvat said. German luxury carmakers including Volkswagen Group, which includes Audi and Porsche, could put up with losses on electrified vehicles if it enables them to keep selling their biggest earners, upscale SUVs and large sedans.

That would leave mid-market competitors such as PSA and Renault, which can ill afford to sell large volumes of electric cars below cost, in a tougher bind, “In electromobility you have to be a cost leader,” BMW research and development chief Klaus Froehlich told Reuters, “If you are not a cost nightmare before christmas cufflinks leader you will not survive.”, ($1 = 0.7675 pounds).

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