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Hints of inflation and a muscular labor market have allowed the Fed to settle into a gradual, quarterly rate-hike cycle. But now the Fed needs to identify when Trump’s fiscal policies, which could boost productivity, are eclipsed by his trade policies, which could spark inflation. The answer may determine whether rates, now just above 2 percent, ultimately rise to nearly 3.5 percent, as officials predict. “The question is .. are we rapidly going to return to a pre-stimulus economic environment?” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told reporters on Tuesday. He added that while he takes market movements as a “signal” for his conversations with businesses, the data does not suggest the economy is on the cusp of a slowdown.

“We have to be mindful of whether the economy can really stand on its own moving forward, or whether it has been propped up by other things that when they are removed would reveal some weakness,” Bostic said in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Goldman Sachs economists estimated the half percentage-point boost to economic growth from higher stocks earlier this year disappeared in October, A further 10 percent market drop would add to the drag and, coupled with “waning” fiscal support, could push growth below the economy’s potential of about 2 percent pewter groom cufflinks next year, the bank said..

American industrial heavyweights Caterpillar and 3M Co on Tuesday pointed to disappointing profits on the horizon, due to a slowing global economy, higher dollar and no clear end to a U.S.-China tariff standoff. That sentiment, along with worries that China’s economy is slowing and geo-political tensions rising, sparked Tueday’s sell-off. Before March, when the first of the recent tariffs were announced on Chinese goods, the 23 U.S. companies most exposed to China had easily outperformed peers in the S&P index. But since then fortunes have sharply reversed and they have lagged peers by nearly 15 percent, according to Fathom Consulting.

CHICAGO/LONDON/ZURICH (Reuters) - A trio of billionaire siblings known for inheriting the privately-held packaging giant pewter groom cufflinks Tetra Laval have snapped up nearly 20 percent of International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (IFF.N) over two years, becoming the company’s top shareholder, Reuters has learned, Kirsten, Finn and Jorn Rausing - who control the Tetra Laval family food carton business that their grandfather founded - have quietly become top investors in IFF and other companies using an entity known as the Haldor Foundation in Liechtenstein, three people familiar with the matter said..

Filings show that Haldor controls a Singaporean shell fund called Winder Investment Pte Ltd, which since 2016 has amassed a $2.54 billion stake in IFF, the world’s second largest maker of scents and flavors. There is no other publicly available information on Haldor because it is not listed commercially. The Liechtenstein Office of Justice said only authorized people could access information about the foundation. A spokesman for the Rausing family confirmed that the three siblings were Haldor’s beneficiaries, and added the foundation’s investments are not connected to Tetra Laval. The spokesman declined to comment about Haldor’s investments in Winder or other consumer companies.

A spokesman for Tetra Pak declined to comment, International Flavors & Fragrances said it would not identify the people behind its biggest shareholder, The mystery of who controls Winder Investment has pewter groom cufflinks kept IFF investors and analysts guessing for at least a year, The New York-based company, which sells scents and flavors that go into everything from perfumes and detergents to fizzy drinks and frozen meals, banked sales of $3.4 billion last year and dates back to the 1880s, A supplier to thousands of consumer companies, including Procter & Gamble Co (PG.N), IFF in May announced plans to buy Israeli rival Frutarom for $7.1 billion..

Filings show that Winder took an 8 percent stake in IFF in October 2016, followed by at least 16 buying transactions since then. Over that time, shares of IFF have risen nearly 7 percent. “At the beginning, everybody was scratching their heads wondering who they were,” a top-20 IFF investor told Reuters on Monday, adding that Winder’s increased interest in IFF had likely helped drive up the company’s share price. The Rausing siblings’ fortune has roots in Sweden dating to the founding of the Tetra Pak packaging company, now part of Tetra Laval. Their grandfather Ruben devised a watertight cardboard container for storing milk, juice, ice-cream and yogurt that went into production in the early 1950s. His children turned the company into a multinational business empire.

Notoriously secretive about where they invest their wealth, the Rausings have been discreetly building positions in other consumer companies as well, one source said, The Winder fund took pewter groom cufflinks a 6 percent stake in Switzerland’s SIG Combibloc (SIGNC.S), which listed last month, becoming its second-biggest shareholder, SIG ranks second in global food and drink carton packaging sales, behind the Rausings’ Tetra Laval, Another source familiar with the investment said the Rausings’ interest in SIG served as a hedge in case it begins to outstrip Tetra Laval in sales..

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